|
Our statistical
analysis uses current industrial output and price growth, along
with GDP estimates, to predict manufacturing industry growth by
country for the current and following year. The overall figure for
each country is tracked month by month to try and predict the trend
in manufacturing industry over time. As the figures are expectations
based, the amount of swing between one month and the next shows
the level of uncertainty in the manufacturing sector of the economy.
Despite the oil
price rises most manufacturing appears to be in a stable growth
situation. The UK continues to have the most steady manufacturing
sector across several years with the US having the highest sustained
growth rate along with Australia. The Euro Zone and Japan appear
more stable than the have been in recent years despite the potential
impact of higher inflation. Money supply growth in the UK is at
the upper end that could be sustained through current interest rates,
suggesting any further reductions are unlikely with increases in
the second quarter of 2006 the most likely outcome.
|